“It would be foolish on my part to carry on down a path that isn’t getting results.” “The things that worked up until a few weeks ago are not working, so it’s clear there will be some changes,” said Piolo after the 5-2 loss at home to Sassuolo on January 29. Pioli had almost exclusively played a 4-2-3-1 until the end of January, when Milan’s form had dropped off a cliff, including a 3-0 Supercoppa final loss against Inter, when they were continuously overloaded by their rival’s advancing wing-backs. Milan have experienced a second wind in recent weeks though - the result of a tactical tweak.

Milan’s peak under Pioli was at the start of the 2020-21 season, when the Rossoneri lost just once in their first 24 games in all competitions, but the post-World Cup slide this season was sharp, as they went seven games in all competitions at the turn of the year without a win.

This is reflected by FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power Index (SPI), which estimates a team’s overall strength between zero and 100 using difficulty-adjusted match results and underlying performance metrics to model a team’s offensive and defensive strength. Stefano Pioli’s side arrive at the semi-final with a weaker team than last season’s Scudetto-winning campaign. While this season’s progress in Europe is better than their previous 15 campaigns, Milan’s season has been mixed.

Mark Carey and Liam Tharme pick out the key statistics and tactical trends ahead of the tie… Wednesday night’s European clash comes 20 years after they faced each other in the semi-final of the 2002-03 Champions League - the Rossoneri came out on top via the away goals rule - and it will be the fourth and fifth meetings between the sides this season, the most times they have faced each other in a single campaign.

Progressive knockout